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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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List Price:
$16.00
Worth Business Price:
$10.88
Your Savings: $ 5.12 ( 32% )
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Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours
Manufacturer: Random House Trade Paperbacks
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Average Customer Rating:  
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Binding: Paperback
Dewey Decimal Number: 123.3
EAN: 9780812975215
ISBN: 0812975219
Label: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Manufacturer: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 368
Publication Date: 2005-08-23
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Release Date: 2005-08-23
Studio: Random House Trade Paperbacks
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Editorial Reviews:
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If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards
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Spotlight customer reviews:
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Customer Rating:
Summary: I'm still a fool after reading this book
Comment: PROS:
* The book argues an important message (that we underestimate the role of luck in our results/outcome).
* A few interesting anecdotes.
CONS:
* Although the author is self-deprecating at times, it smells more of false modesty rather than geniune humility (which he argues everyone should have). Most of the time (as other reviewers have noted) his arrogance comes out loud and clear, and that's annoying.
* Disjointed style of writing. He rambles, jumps around, and writes in awkward sentences. The writing doesn't flow easily.
* Disorganized. He proclaims that he doesn't like to use headers that tell the reader much about what is coming up. For non-fiction books, I prefer clarity, rather than cuteness.
CONCLUSION: There are brief moments of brilliance and lucidness, brief moments when you think the book is really going to be worth reading, and then it quickly vanishes. Unfortunately, it's also a hard book to skim. I don't recommend it.
Customer Rating:
Summary: Great concept but poor writing
Comment: Well, what can I say? The concept of "black swamp" function is very original and as a professional investor, I appreciate the author's insight into this critical concept to long term return. However, the whole book is about this concept and I don't learn anything new after finishing the first few chapters. Moreover, the author is a trader rather than a writer which probably explain his less-than-perfect reading style. Readers have to be prepared for his "non-linear" logic and could be very confusing at times.
Customer Rating:
Summary: are you fooled???
Comment: i find it fascinating the diverse reviews this book has received, it seems to have a polarizing effect on readers! for me the book was engrossing, but admittedly i am a fan of taleb's writing and philosophy of life. while he is clearly not concerned with journalistic rules he is able to communicate his point. so what if his sentence structure is not perfect. what i appreciate most about his works, fooled by randomness included is that they caused me to think, and rethink my own beliefs and perceptions about life. i felt challenged by the content and relished the opportunity to ponder paragraphs. this is the strength of his writing (in my humble estimation) to cause the reader to think. a worthy read even if you are prone to focus on the impossibly difficult particulars of writing in the english language...
Customer Rating:
Summary: Randomness fools us all.
Comment: This everyman's introduction to randomness should prove interesting to everyone who invests for profit, fun or retirement. The narrative style conveys the author's point that random spikes or troughs can occur in any investment without warning and that the oft used normal curve does not necessarily model the behavior of investments. It's sort of like saying that the normal wind speed is an accurate model for what could happen in tornado alley on a specific day in the summer.
That being said, there's little guidance for the investor about ameliorating the effects of "black swan" events; the best one can do is expect them and try to avoid being over-extended in yesterday's hot investment when the bottom falls out.
Customer Rating:
Summary: Fooled by Randomness - every day!
Comment: Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an extremely insightful individual with an equally impresive gift for storytelling.
His basic thesis is that although we like to think of our lives as ordered and predictable, they are extremely prey to random chance, and are in fact far far more so than most of us can even understand. We create delusions of predictabilty, mentally rewriting our own history in order to avoid excessive anxiety. He brings a unique perspective as both a genuine thinker and a man of practical experience in one of the most volatile occupational arenas of modern life - the stock market.
I found the autobiographical aspects of this book (both in the first person narrative, and the use of the fictional Nero Tulip) as interesting as its more philosphical and analytical content.
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